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Episode 391: The Best Listener Email Show Since Last Week’s
Date February 21, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about MLB’s blackout policy, the Phillies and the NCAA, missing triples, the save rule, and more. Topics * Episode 390 follow-up: co-GM scenarios * Drop in triples in the American League * Baseball rules assumed by broadcasts * Philadelphia Phillies & the NCAA * Hypothetical save rule change * Value of a walk * MLB.TV's blackout policy Intro Sloan, "Blackout" Email Questions * Benjamin: "As someone who might charitably be described as a political operative I spend a lot of time thinking about the composition of committees and elected bodies and how that composition affects decision making. The discussion of the Rockies co-GM situation got me thinking about how decision making could be done differently in front offices so I thought I'd propose a couple scenarios. I was wondering how decision making the following scenarios would be similar or different to today's model and whether decisions would ultimately be better or worse. Scenario is: decisions are made by a group of 7 co-GMs hired by the team to make decisions. it is assumed the skill level of each co-GM individually roughly mirrors the distribution of talent in front offices generally. So essentially, instead of having a GM who makes decisions you would have a body of GMs who would vote like a congress of GMs. All votes would be weighted equally, I am assuming decision to trade, sign, etc. are made like they are in a parliamentary setting, the need to be proposed by a member of the body and voted on." * Christopher (Tennessee): "While browsing Baseball Reference I noticed that the number of triples last year in the American League (348) was the lowest its been since 1972 without even adjusting for the number of games played which has only gone up. 10-15 years ago the AL would routinely hit 420-440 triples a year but since 2008 its averaged about 10% less than that. I suppose in the 70s and 80s there was artificial turf and speedy runners to account for the high numbers of triples, but what accounts for this huge drop since 2003? Power hitting doesn't seem to correlate and I don't think there have been lots of new parks since 2003 (just two that I can think of). Could the drop in triples be related to either better fielding or a change in base running philosophy? If the latter is it possible that a triple is less highly valued by teams than it used to be and coaches have been instructed to keep runners at second, or do we have just have a bunch of really slow runners right now? The NL had a similarly significant drop last year but its more difficult to spot a clear trend there." * Andy: "I recently explained to a friend of mine that in baseball once a player comes out of the game he can't return. He was baffled by this, which made me realize that unless you played in high school or something you have to learn this rule from your dad. Think about it, it's not like this is ever mentioned in broadcasts and it would be weird if they did but it's very key to strategy. Are there any other baseball rules like this?" * Eric: "With the whole mess of the Phillies ratting on a draft pick of theirs to the NCAA, there's been a sentiment for many writers that the Phillies might run into some issues in future drafts due to their picks not trusting them. While I share their disdain for what the organization did I can't imagine a scenario in which this actually hurts them. I'm often skeptical when there are claims that big league teams will have trouble attracting talent, like was said in recent years with the Marlins. I'm even more skeptical that this will have the slightest difference for their draft. What leverage do these players have?" * Josh: "What if starting this year saves were awarded to the reliever that came in and succeeded at the highest leverage situation? With the definition change how many managers would immediately start using their closer in the 6th, 7th or 8th? How many would change their strategy midway through the 1st season, or never change?" * Mike: "What is a walk worth in singles? How much is a walk worth compared to a single?" * Scott: "MLB.TV prevents you from watching your local market team online. Fans must therefore watch most local games on cable, thus cable companies are falling all over themselves to acquire team's TV rights. Aren't the blackout rules then specifically designed to protect cable companies who pay insane rights fees to teams? If so, we'll never see the blackouts lifted, right?" Play Index * Sam tries to answer what may have caused the drop in triples in the American League since the 1970s. * Of the top 10 seasons in each ball park containing the most seasons, half of them were in the 1970s. * The drop can largely be attributed to better defense, including faster defenders and better positioning. Notes * Ben introduces that they will now have Play Index segments during the email shows. * The Phillies tipped off the NCAA that two of their draft picks had retained agents but then returned to school after not signing with the Phillies. * Sam jokes that Eric's question is "subtweeting" him and Ben given how often they talk about teams having potential trouble attracting talent. * Ben thinks changing the definition of a save would change how managers use their pitchers eventually, but that most would not make any adjustments immediately. * Sam says that a walk is worth about 80% of a single. * The MLB blackout policy was previously discussed in Episode 34. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 391: The Best Listener Email Show Since Last Week’s * The Duracell GM Generation? by Ben Lindbergh * A Triple Redux by Dan Fox Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes